8 seats to defeat: 13 seats to victory
"If we lose eight seats at the next federal election we are gone, we are out of business and the Labor Party is the government not only in the eight states and territories but also at a national level."
John Howard, September 2003

The House of Representatives notionally has 83 Coalition held seats. Labor has 63 members, the Greens 1 and the independents 3 for a total of 150 members. These are notional seats because there have been changes to electoral boundaries in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia since the 2001 Federal election.

Going into the 2004 election, the Coalition has a notional majority of 15 seats over all other parties in the House of Representatives. The Coalition would lose its absolute majority if 8 seats were lost at the next election. Labor needs to win an additional 13 seats for an absolute majority. If the result falls in-between, we may have a minority government that depends on the support of some independents and/or a minor party to govern.