The reason why the Bush homeland team keeps harping about impending doom and gloom terrorist attacks, is because they were caught with their pants down on 9/11. By continuing to build anxiety over an impending attack which may never come, they can use an attack to their political advantage immediately.

But the fact remains, there cannot be another 9/11 for a good decade at least, because the main success of the attacks was the surprise factor--we didn't see it coming, unlike Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, where these sorts of attacks have been occurring for decades. However, we shouldn't assume that a terrorist attack close to the election will automatically benefit Bush, especially if the race remains close all the way. Spain proved that the front runner who is a strong conservative and militarist, can also lose and election turn on a dime.

I think if a second massive terror attack happens in the US between now and November, that Kerry will benefit at this point, not Bush.