The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #70683   Message #1207153
Posted By: Wolfgang
14-Jun-04 - 03:57 PM
Thread Name: BS: German elections & a simple man's dream
Subject: RE: BS: German elections & a simple man's dream
I only had the funny side in mind when posting, but since you want to know: How do these elections affect Schroeder?

Formally, not at all (yet, but see below). The red/green majority in the parliament is the same as it was the day before.

However, the Social Democrats never really liked him, they liked his ability to win the votes. With that ability gone they'll think of ways how to dump him before, or at the very least, after the next elections.

But beside that, the results are a real threat for the Red/Green majority for this complicated reason:

The German Lands form a kind of second chamber to the main parliament. They can block decisions that directly affect them with majority vote (3 to 5 votes per land, depending on inhabitants). These are the minority of all laws. All the other laws they can block them by majority vote only for a short time, for the main parliament can overrule that blocking by a vote with absolute majority (Red/Green still holds absolute majority). However, the lands (second chamber) can block any law with a two third majority. It has never happened yet that the majority in the Bundestag had a two third majority of the parliamentary opposition against them in the second chamber (Bundesrat).

But since the last federal elections Red/Green has lost many elections in the lands and the conservative opposition is approaching 2/3 majority in the second chamber. One of the elections yesterday had the best chances for Red/Green to break the conservative majority in one German land (Thüringen). They failed. That doesn't change the majority in the Bundesrat yet. But the next big land falling to the Christian Democrats will give them now the 2/3 majority in the second chamber. They'll be able to block every move of the government then. That'll be in spring 1905, when Northrhine-Westphalia falls to the present opposition in that land. If that happens quick new elections are unavoidable.

Wolfgang