Here are the facts:

Poll       Dates      Bush      Kerry    Margin
CNN       9/3-9/5    52         45       7
Newsweek   9/2-9/3    52         41       11
Time       8/31-9/2   52         41       11
Zogby      8/30-9/2   46         43         3

There are three "legitimate" polls that show Bush leading by more than the margin of error.   Zogby has consistantly shown Bush lower than all other polls.   Zogby has also said that it was "Kerry's race to lose"   I am not sure if the Time or Zogby polls were done after or before BUsh's speech.

The question is why did Bush get a huge bounce when Kerry got little or no bounce?   All the talking heads said that Kerry got no bounce because everyone already had their mind made up.   They were proved wrong yet again.

I would contend that the republican convention has much more appeal to moderates and independents than the democratic convention.   Is there any democrat (other than Liebeman who was nowhere to be found at the convention) who appeals to moderates and independants like John McCain, or Rudy?   Throw in Arnold along with democrats Miller, Koch, and Silver.   We compare this with the democratic linup of Clinton, Gore, Dean, Sharpton, and Kucinich.    Be honest- which lineup do you think has more appeal for undecided?   Rudy, McCain, and Arnold will be very effective campaigners for republicans.

As someone above said, the only poll that matters is Nov 2.   The real question is turnout.   Who gets their people out.    Will the 4 million evangelicals that stayed home in 2000 vote this time or stay home again.   

Debates will be useless becasue of the format.   Both candidates will repeat their talking points because interruptions are not allowed.   We need Bill Oreilly as the moderator and make it a "no spin" debate.   Like him or not, he doesn't let either side just repeat their talking points.   Remember- Reagan got lost on AIA during the debate and it didn't matter- still clobbered Dukakis.   Funny- I don't remember seeing Dukakis as the Democratic convention.   I must have missed him.