Ron- Bush went from 2 points behind before the convention started to eleven points ahead in two legitimate polls after the convention ended.    If that is not a huge jump (compared to Kerry who got 0 points in bump after the convention) than what do you define as a "huge bump"?

Before the convention, most "talking heads" and "experts" were prediciting no bump like Kerry or at most a 2%-4% lead for Bush after the convention.   I don't recall anyone talking about Bush leading by 11% after the convention.

Yes- this will fade and the race will get closer.    In the end it will still depend on turnout.    The real question for Kerry- Will the African American community turn out and continue to support him with over 90% of the vote.    There have been a lot of rumblings from African Americans about not taking their vote for granted.   Should "only" 80% support Kerry or a large number not show up- Kerry loses.