Nerd - not sure about that. Can you give a more definitive source for your numbers?

I looked for a summary of "battleground states" polling and came up with the following.

At least the specific states are mentioned. 15 in all.

New Jersey and Pennsylvania are in play this year???


Florida                                         Tossup
New Mexico                                Tossup
Wisconsin                                   Kerry, Slight
Iowa                                            Kerry, Slight
Oregon                                 Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire                 Kerry, Slight
Minnesota                           Kerry, Lean
Ohio                                      Kerry, Lean
Nevada                                 Bush, Lean
Pennsylvania                Kerry, Slight
Michigan                              Tossup
Arkansas                              Bush, Slight
Arizona                                 Bush, Slight
West Virginia                       Bush, Lean
New Jersey                          Kerry, Slight