I agree with the first statement after the It seems pretty clear phrase but not necessarily with the second.

You come dangerously close to saying 'Bush is hoping for a second atrocity'.

Regarding Spain, I understand that you say the important thing for them was to be seen affecting the Spanish elections. Since all commentators agreed that without the terrorists's interference the Spanish elections was a clear victory for the conservatives, a victory of the opposition was the clearest sign that they have an effect. The elctorate you say should refuse to be manipulated in that way. So the Spanish electorate should have voted as they wanted before that is they should have voted conservatives. That's how I understand what you write. But I don't believe that is your opinion.

Wolfgang