Here's why I expect that Kerry "won" the debate -- something we won't really know till we see how voter preferences stack up after the dust has settled.

Bush has been ahead of Kerry in most polls for the past few weeks, DESPITE having less than 50% support in many of the states in which he's ahead and less than 50% approval for his policies, performances, etc. In other words, the "referendum" on Bush's first term so far shows him pretty much right around 50% or lower.

Kerry has been within striking distance (within a few percentage points) in nearly all "battleground states" polls even after having his name and record dragged through the mud on the cable "news" channels and most radio talk shows (except for airamericaradio.com) for about 6 weeks.   Most voters haven't heard or seen anything of Kerry since the Dem. convention, except for slanted sound bites and the image of him promoted by Cheney, Bush, and their cronies.

The reason Kerry's been behind, IMO, is that the undecided voters and those who are still open to changing their allegiance haven't known Kerry well enough to back him.

I think Kerry looked and sounded "Presidential" last night, seemed poised and confident, yet respectful of Bush.   His language was not overly formal or stiff, for the most part. He was quite direct and succinct in most of his message. And he also smiled and laughed at appropriate times.

I don't expect Bush's support to diminish very much because of last night's debate, but I do expect Kerry's to increase a good deal. And all Kerry needs to do to win some of the "battleground states" is reach 48% to 50%, and I expect the way he came across last night went a long way to getting him there.

I also think Kerry's performance last night will make people more likely to watch the second debate.