I'm totally confused. If so many Republicans are planning on voting for Kerry, why has Kerry lost so much ground in some of the Dem stronghold states like NJ, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa?

Hell, Gore carried most those states by VERY safe margins in 2000.

To further confuse matters, the new AP poll of likely voters just out, Kerry now leads Bush overall 50/46, and it is tied 47/47 among registered voters.

Other than Michael Moore, George Soros, and Noam Chomsky (white guys and their wives, in other words), it is difficult to figure out who exactly is going to vote for Kerry, as his numbers are swinging wildly all over the map.