As Brucie points out, "economy-based projections" are of necessity extrapolating into the future based on the past.

1) Such projections are probably not worth much since they are based on old statistics. Not that I wish bad times for the US, but according to the Wall St Journal, the stubbornly high oil prices are likely to start cutting into any economic recovery strongly quite soon.   The job creation figure Friday was already much lower than expected.

2) The virtually unprecedented new voter registrations could easily upset all projections. Now it's only a question of turnout.