Family First losing Senate control to Coalition - Election 2004 -



Family First losing Senate control to Coalition
By Tim Colebatch
Canberra
October 22, 2004

The Government's grip on a historic Senate majority is tightening, with National Party candidate Barnaby Joyce steaming away in the count for Queensland's final Senate seat.

A steady flow of votes counted since election night has doubled the
Nationals' lead over Family First at the point in the preference
distribution where one or other candidate is eliminated.

On election night, the Nationals led by roughly 2500 votes, assuming all voters vote above the line. Their lead has now doubled to almost 5000 votes, and Mr Joyce is odds-on to win.

His victory would give the Coalition 39 of the 76 seats in the new
Senate to take office next July, the first time in 24 years that a
government has controlled the upper house. With senators elected for
six-year terms, that control should last until at least 2011.

In the House of Representatives, Labor has regained a 45-vote lead in
Hindmarsh, the one seat still in doubt. The last 360 votes will be
counted today.

In Tasmania, Greens Senate candidate Christine Milne is odds-on to take the final seat after clawing back more votes in her struggle with Family First. The Greens have almost 40,000 votes and Family First just 7300, but on paper, preferences would give it the seat. But Tasmania has many independent minds, and 17 per cent of voters have selected their own preferences. Ms Milne needs just 7 per cent of voters to give her their preference ahead of Family First.

No other Senate seats are in doubt. The major parties will split them
three-all in NSW and South Australia. Family First will win the final
seat in Victoria, and the Greens will take it in WA. The Coalition has won three seats in each state and Labor two.

This would see Labor again with 28 seats in the new Senate. The Greens would move from two to four, while the Democrats shrink from seven to four. One Nation and the independents will disappear, leaving Family First's Steven Fielding alone in the corner benches.