The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #74691   Message #1305544
Posted By: GUEST
24-Oct-04 - 10:01 AM
Thread Name: BS: Pre-Election Post-election thoughts
Subject: RE: BS: Pre-Election Post-election thoughts
Couple of facts to throw in this hysterical thread:

Bush brought his cases to the US Supreme Court. But Gore v Harris was filed first, which was to get a recount going. You can access the case filings at FindLaw.

Second, the "thousands of lawyers" thing seems to be confusing things here. I don't think either party is anticipating a repeat of 2000. The lawyers both sides are mobilizing are to be present at polling places, especially the polling places in Florida and without a paper ballot, as election observers. Just like we send election observers to El Salvador or Afghanistan.

Voter fraud and voting irregularities are nothing new under the sun, and have been part and parcel of American elections since their inception. I think it safe to presume voter fraud and voting irregularities are de rigeur in Florida. Discriminatory/irregular voting practices on the ground are common in the South, not just Florida. Discriminatory/irregular voting practices on the ground are common in California and Texas too. And in certain urban areas like Chicago and New York and Newark and all kinds of other places we never hear about nationally, but where elections get contested.

Anyone who thinks US elections are a pure process is delusional at best. Clean elections are, in many parts of the US, an oxymoron. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone here could name an area in their state where the elections/election results are always a bit dodgy, and Democrats are every bit as guilty of that as Republicans.

But that doesn't mean we will see a repeat of 2000. I think that is extremely unlikely. But it does help the TV and talk show ratings, the hysteria mongering, and possibly even will result in getting more people to the polls. But I'm not expecting that it will take any longer than 24 hours to verify the election results this time around. I think either Bush or Kerry will end up with a comfortable enough margin (at least 1-2%) to easily be declared the winner, regardless of provisional ballots, absentee ballots, etc.

It could end up that Florida is in play in terms of a recount being needed, but I even doubt that scenario. I don't think the polls are accurate at this point, and by next weekend, the polls will become meaningless. Those last minute undecideds will make up their minds then, and that is always too late to tally accurately. Then, there is the actual turnout on the day. Historically, increased voter registrations haven't turned out many new voters on election day. So the predictions using new voter registrations tend to be wildly inaccurate too.