For the "October Surprise" I was backing the formation of an economic cushion that Bush could ride to the White House. My theory (and I still think this was the plan) was that the Saudis were going to lower the price of oil and let the price of gas go way back down in these couple of months prior to the election. No matter how many pundits have sophisticated views of the body politic, it would have come down to Joe Schmoe who doesn't give a rat's ass about anything except a cheap tank of gas. Get those good ol' boys out to vote and Dubya was in. Trouble is, the 5000-member Saudi royal family has been drinking and running drugs and fornicating themselves into a hard place there in the old country (see the ABC news report from 20/20 a couple of weeks back, in which cameramen and reporters were roughed up and tapes stolen and destroyed). They're trying to sweep back the tide of resentment in their own country, among the well-heeled male voters who are eligible to vote over there. I think this messed up Dubya's plan.

There is one thing that, if George thought he could take credit might make a difference, but I don't think he's politically swift enough to figure out: Sharon has had a sudden epiphany and realizes he must move the settlers out of the Gaza Strip. All hell has broken loose in his own party, but he'll form a coalition with Labor and more forward. The popular view has for some time now been that Israel doesn't need to support a slim ultra-fanatic population of 8000 "settlers" who have cherry-picked the prime land in an area with millions of Palestinians. The bad feelings and hundreds or thousands of soldiers required to support those zealots simply aren't worth it. It's a pointless point of principle to hold onto that region. The Israeli populace says let that land go to the Palestinians and thereby start a meaningful peace process. If Bush caught onto that, he could latch onto Sharon's coattails. If Israel settles down in the Middle East, others will follow. Boy, couldn't Bush use that right now.

SRS