I remember renewing my library card during the summer of 1963 when I was eleven years old. The card was good for four years, which meant it expired in 1967. As I looked at that date on the card I was sure someone had made a mistake because, in 1963, everyone knew that 1967 would never come. 1964 was looking iffy and 1965 was even more unlikely, but for anyone to even imagine that the world would not be destroyed before 1967 rolled around just seemed absurd.

Forty-one years later and it ain't happened yet.


But, reflecting on the question at hand...

I don't know what the odds are that a nuclear weapon will be used in the mid-east, but I fear that if one does get used - and it makes no difference whether it is used by The U.S., Russia, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, an Arab state, or a terrorist organization - the odds of more being used are close to 100%. Somehow, we've managed to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle for almost 60 years now, but once it gets out it's not going to be easy to put it back in.