When did the Soviet Union collapse? When did reform take off in Iran? When
did the Oslo peace process begin? When did economic reform become a hot
topic in the Arab world? In the late 1980's and early 1990's. And what was
also happening then? Oil prices were collapsing.

In November 1985, oil was $30 a barrel, recalled the noted oil economist
Philip Verleger. By July of 1986, oil had fallen to $10 a barrel, and it did
not climb back to $20 until April 1989. "Everyone thinks Ronald Reagan
brought down the Soviets," said Mr. Verleger. "That is wrong. It was the
collapse of their oil rents." It's no accident that the 1990's was the
decade of falling oil prices and falling walls.

If President Bush made energy independence his moon shot, he would dry up
revenue for terrorism; force Iran, Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to
take the path of reform - which they will never do with $45-a-barrel oil -
strengthen the dollar; and improve his own standing in Europe, by doing
something huge to reduce global warming. He would also create a magnet to
inspire young people to contribute to the war on terrorism and America's
future by becoming scientists, engineers and mathematicians. "This is not
just a win-win," said the Johns Hopkins foreign policy expert Michael
Mandelbaum. "This is a win-win-win-win-win."

Or, Mr. Bush can ignore this challenge and spend the next four years in an
utterly futile effort to persuade Russia to be restrained, Saudi Arabia to
be moderate, Iran to be cautious and Europe to be nice.

Sure, it would require some sacrifice. But remember J.F.K.'s words when he
summoned us to go to the moon on Sept. 12, 1962: "We choose to go to the
moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but
because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure
the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we
are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we
intend to win."

Summoning all our energies and skills to produce a 21st-century fuel is
George W. Bush's opportunity to be both Nixon to China and J.F.K. to the
moon - in one move.

(From the NY Times Editorial section -- Friedman)

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