this link here lies, damned lied and statistics discusses how the american gun lobby is inventing false statistics to support thier own views.

here are some excerpts:

..an article in today's Australian by John Lott Jnr titled Tough gun laws don't reduce crime. .. Lott was an employee of the arch-conservative American Enterprise Institute. In today's Australian article, Lott also appears to play fast and loose with Australian crime statistics. He states:

    "In the four years after the UK banned handguns in 1996, gun crime rose by 40 per cent. Similarly, since Australia's 1996 laws banning many guns, armed robberies rose by 51 per cent, unarmed robberies by 37 per cent, assaults by 24 per cent and kidnappings by 43 per cent. Although murders fell by 3 per cent, manslaughter rose by 16 per cent." Lott's purported Australian figures are grossly misleading, if not downright false. In fact, ABS [Australian Bureau of statistics] figures show that between 1993 and 2001:

    * while the number of victims of murder has increased slightly from 296 to 306, as a rate per 100,000 population there has been a slight decrease from 1.7 to 1.6 victims;
    * there has been an 11% decrease in murders where a weapon was used over this period, while during the same period there has been a 19% increase in attempted murders where a weapon was used.
    * while the proportion of robberies where a weapon was used in 1993 and 2001 was similar (42%), the use of firearms has declined both in actual numbers (from 1,983 down to 1,686) and as a proportion of all robberies (from 16% to 6%);
    * while the proportion of robberies where a weapon was used in 1993 and 2001 was similar (42%), the use of firearms has declined both in actual numbers (from 1,983 down to 1,686) and as a proportion of all robberies (from 16% to 6%).

Note that Lott concedes the falling murder rate in Australia, but tries to give the impression that it is more than negated by a much higher manslaughter rate. However, Jenny Mouzos of the Australian Institute of Criminology in a paper titled Changing Patterns in Homicide observes that, between 1989 and 1998, the homicide rate (which includes both murder and manslaughter) as measured by the National Homicide Monitoring Program remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.7 and 2.0 per 100 000 population (around 300 homicides in total each year). That remains the case up to the present (see Homicidal Encounters: A Study of Homicide in Australia 1989-1999; Homicide in Australia 1999-2000; Homicide in Australia: 2000-2001 National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) Annual Report - all by Mouzos).

Thus, Lott presents a totally misleading picture, and indeed a completely false one on robbery figures. He also conveniently fails to mention several facts that most people would probably find rather relevant to the gun control issue:

    * In the decade to 1996, forty-six per cent of firearms incidents involved a weapon that is (now) prohibited or restricted as a result of the initiatives following the Port Arthur tragedy of 1996. These incidents accounted for 55 per cent of the victims of firearm homicide (see Firearms Homicide in Australia by Carlos Carcach and P N Grabosky).
    * In 1995-96 the proportion of homicides committed with a firearm was 21 per cent, a figure much lower than that which prevailed twenty years ago (the proportion then was around 40 per cent). The proportion has continued at that rate ever since. Thus, the post-Port Arthur gun laws were clearly not the sole cause of falling gun homicides; they were merely part of an ongoing process of legal and social reform, which will hopefully continue with further sensible restrictions on handguns.
    * The United States has the highest homicide rate of 6.8 per 100 000 population. The US rate has been declining since 1994, but in comparison to Australia it is still three times higher (and 3.5 times the UK rate).
    * Between July 1998 and June 1999 there were 64 firearm-related homicides recorded in Australia. This equates to 3 firearm homicides per one million persons (Mouzos 2000a). By comparison, the United States recorded 10,973 known firearm homicides in 1998 or 41 per one million population (Fox & Zawitz 2001).

Mr. Lott is not the only one playing fast and loose with statistics on gun-related crime. Our very own ozplogger Zem argues that:

    "Anti-gun lobbyists are pushing hard for further restrictions and buybacks, despite NSW's 400% increase in shootings since federal restrictions were imposed in 1996. Nor have they been paying attention to the experience in England, where "gold standard" handgun control laws have seen a dramatic increase in violent crime".

Now, a 400% increase in shootings also looks like a pretty spectacular figure, doesn't it? maybe it proves that Howard's gun laws haven't worked as well as we had hoped, at least in lawless New South Wales. To find the answer, I looked at a May 2001 NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research by Jacqueline Fitzgerald, Suzanne Briscoe and Don Weatherburn called Firearms and Violent Crime in New South Wales . The report summarises the NSW situation as follows:

    *       Murders involving firearms have declined over the last five years.
    *       Robberies involving firearms have declined over the last three years (but rose slightly in the 3 years before that)
    *       'Shoot with intent' incidents have risen over the last five years.
    *       'Shoot with intent' incidents involving handguns have risen over the last five years.
    *       About half of all 'shoot with intent' offences involving handguns and other firearms occur in a public place.
    *       The increase in firearm offences has been most pronounced in areas of Sydney where drug trafficking is a problem.
    *       Young males aged 18-19 are much more prone to involvement in shooting incidents than older males.
    *       The prevalence of firearm offences, in general, and handgun offences, in particular, remains low.

How, then, does Zem make a claim of a 400% increase in shootings (which I suspect he got from the Sporting Shooters Association)? Fitzgerald et al report:

    "In 1995 a handgun was implicated in nine 'shoot with intent' incidents recorded by the police. Every year since 1995 the number of 'shoot with intent' offences involving handguns has risen, peaking at 42 offences in 2000. The State-wide increase in handgun shootings has been particularly pronounced in the Canterbury-Bankstown and Fairfield-Liverpool Statistical Subdivisions."

Thus, although both murders and robberies involving firearms have fallen (in NSW as in the rest of Australia), the rate for just one particular type of firearm offence ( 'shoot with intent') has increased in NSW by almost 400% (as Zem claimed). However, as Fitzgerald et al found, this is almost entirely due to a very specific and very local factor: the growth of youth drug gangs around Canterbury-Bankstown-Lakemba (predominantly Lebanese gangs) and Fairfield-Liverpool- Cabramatta (predominantly Vietnamese gangs). The phenomenon appears to have no broader geographical significance, and in no way establishes the failure of John Howard's gun laws.

Lastly, let's return to the US comparison. After all it seems to be the US model that Zem, Alex Robson and John Lott Jnr all think Australia should emulate. As Fitzgerald et al observe:

    "Even robberies involving firearms are much less prevalent in NSW than they are in the United States. This is despite NSW having the highest per capita robbery rate in Australia. As we saw earlier, last year there were 655 robberies involving firearms in NSW. Sixty-seven per cent (438) of these incidents involved a handgun. On a per capita basis this gives an annual firearm robbery rate in NSW of 10.1 incidents per 100,000 population and a handgun robbery rate of 6.8 incidents per 100,000 population. The rates of 'shoot with intent' incidents are even lower than the rates for robbery with a firearm incidents, being 1.6 per 100,000 population in the case of 'shoot with intent' incidents involving any kind of firearm and 0.7 per 100,000 population in the case of 'shoot with intent' incidents involving a handgun.

    For comparison, the rate of firearm robbery in the United States is 58.7 crimes per 100,000 population (Federal Bureau of Investigation 2000) ..."