A big part of the drama and concern over the death of a Pope is anticipation of the next Pope. For the first time in centuries, it's not a likely bet that it'll be an Italian Vatican insider. The surprise election of JP put an end to that monopoly.

It probably will be another conservative type, though. Progressive Catholicism as practiced in the US and Western Europe may well continue to be more and more marginalized, valued as a major source of income but ignored/suppressed when it comes to theology, scholarship, etc.

The Church is thriving in those parts of the world where it is most conservative, notably in the southern hemisphere and "third world." An African Pope is still probaly unlikley, but don't be surprised to see a Latin American get elected.