I'm not old enough to remember it personally, but I seem to recall hearing that John XXIII was supposed to be an interim figure & ended up holding Vatican II. Benedict XVI could surprise all the predictions. I do hope he mananges to last longer than John Paul I.

Both JP's were viewed as pastoral men. Ratzinger seems to be an academic turned bureaucrat. Does he have any real world experience since those days in the army & POW camp?