The world is FAR more complicated than any previous posters have acknowledged. In Iraq for example, where the Shiite MAJORITY has been dominated by not so much a Sunni minority but rather a secular socialist political party (Baath) which is primarily composed of Sunnis dominating through a military consisting of BOTH sects (but mostly led by Sunnis).

The far greater split is between secular Iraqis and the religiously 'dominated' (for want of a better word) Iraqis.

There are ethnic divisions of long standing: Turkomans, Kurds, Arabs, Persians. There are levels at which they will cooperate, levels at which they will collaborate, and at levels below which there is distrust. All revolve around mostly clear points of common interest.

One of the points of common interest is that most of 'em don't like being occupied. Would you?

Saying it is hopelessly complicated is to give up and abstain from assuming responsibility. Why say any more - except to pick on anyone who has any opinion whatsoever.

Seeing the real world and its current splits and figuring out what to do about it is far more interesting, and within the confines of a web-thread, fun.

Big picture - a lot of the basic orientation of the people of the region is familial-tribal. Nationhood, which evolved in Europe over a long and bloody period, also dominated by religious schisms, has been to an imposed on the area by external colonial powers or internal dictatorial powers.

It is easy to predict success or failure and then cavil or crow as events proceed. But it is far more interesting to find a moral human thread through this mess and try to see how things might be put or kept together.

After all, the sandiest desert wanderer, the raw Iraqi recruit with distrust for the very people who handed him his new uniform, the kid who is stuck in a basement memorizing the words of the prophet, and the kid from Nebraska who is seeing the world through the dusty window of a Humvee, all are made from the same basic stuff.

Doesn't anyone believe in miracles any more?

I do. I have to.