Robo - What you said makes the most sense to me.

"There are ethnic divisions of long standing: Turkomans, Kurds, Arabs, Persians. There are levels at which they will cooperate, levels at which they will collaborate, and at levels below which there is distrust. All revolve around mostly clear points of common interest.

One of the points of common interest is that most of 'em don't like being occupied. Would you?

Next questions -

Will the Kurds, Arabs and Persians be able to sustain a lasting peace without international peace-keeping efforts and massive efforts to rebuild a war torn Iraq? Will the U.S. remain or will they withdraw and leave it to the international community to maintain peace?   

Yes, Joe - There are many who are educated but not enough to control the many rebel factions that have religious and tribal loyalties.