The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #84217 Message #1554669
Posted By: GUEST,Guy Who Thinks
02-Sep-05 - 09:03 AM
Thread Name: BS: Black looters, white finders
Subject: RE: BS: Black looters, white finders
I've calmed down somewhat. Before we get too enraged about the foot-dragging response to those warnings, there's one very important element that I have not heard addressed by the news. Namely, how likely was this kind if disaster, according to the studies?
Risk management has to balance consequences with likelihood. In other words, a very remote catastrophe demands a lesser immediate response than a less terrible but virtually certain event.
If the warnings stated, say, "a 50-50 chance within ten years," that would be a wakeup call that no sane politician could ignore. But if the reports suggested, for example, "a 1 in 500 chance in the next twenty years," there would be a lower priority for improving the levees now.
I am certainly not trying to let anybody off the hook. But let's determine what the facts really are.
Here is a very grim summary of recent developments:
http://news.yahoo.com/fc/world/hurricanes_and_tropical_storms