Current estimates are that in a normal year in the UK about 12000 people will die from flu. If the bird flu develops into a pandemic, which would happen if it mutates so that it is transmitted from human to human rather than from infected bird to human, that figure would be expected to go up to about 50,000 as a low figure, and maybe 700,000 as a high figure.

"There is also confusioin about whether the conventional flu jab will protect against avian flu. There is a fair chance that it will not, but the NHS wants to limit 'normal flu' in the population because if the bird flu mixes with a common strain it could produce a hybrid that could spark a pandemic." (Observer, 16th October)

"There is a fair chance that it will not" sounds to me like a other way of saying "there is a good chance that it will". I'm glad I've had my jab, anyway...