The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #85403   Message #1588360
Posted By: robomatic
22-Oct-05 - 08:47 AM
Thread Name: BS: Latest on ANWR
Subject: RE: BS: Latest on ANWR
Rather than repeat what went before, I refer to a pretty informative thread that ranged over a lot of this territory:

What The Latest ANWR Vote Means

Among the points made was this post by Ron and an answer by myself:

"6)   "Having additionally locally produced oil and more control over our consumption" will lead to lower oil prices. Wonderful. Your naivete is touching. What pill do you intend to feed US consumers so they do not take lower oil prices as an invitation to the next SUV or other gas-guzzler craze?

I'm glad you're touched (don't let it go to your head). The core argument in favor is that it will save tens of billions of dollars from going overseas. We don't know what the price of oil is going to be in 2020. It may already be $200/ barrel. Having ANWR derived oil on tap will be better than not having it, under any foreseeable conditions. Remember this is not going to solve our energy problem, it goes toward giving us more breathing room.


A year ago ten billion barrels of oil was worth about four hundred billion dollars. Right now it's worth about six hundred billion dollars. The higher cost of gasoline has resulted in the US consumption dropping markedly. Therefore whatever the percentage of domestic consumption being made up by future ANWR development, it is proportionately higher than it used to be, making ANWR development of greater significance than it was. Half a trillion dollars will not solve problems, but it fosters solutions, rebuilds cities, and gives us a cushion.

Right now the environmental lobby has a lot of moral and political clout. If times get more desperate, a lot of this might get ignored. Development under a powerful environmental lobby is preferable to waiting until we're desperate.

The government under 'W' has shown a marked lack of leadership in the area of conservation. That doesn't mean that leadership can't be assumed by others, esp. the aforementioned environmentalists. Businesses which develop lower energy products will prosper regardless. We are moving into an era of LED lighting, for instance, instead of flourescent and incandescent. Industries have already been developing cogeneration strategies, wherein power generation facilities are located near enough to factories and end-users so what would have been waste heat is used as part of building heating facilities. Having government fail to lead is better than having government wrongly lead.