Littlehawk
My entire professional life has been spent searching for oil. For a long time economists have had this weird notion that the market would magic up some more- and it will for quite a while but at a much greater price. Arab oil was in blooming huge anti-clines- so big they pushed the rock into bumps on the surface. Drill a hole and out it comes. Most of the rest of the world's oil is a lot more dispersed and harder to get to. So the price is going through a step phase or shock- how hard that shock hits the western economy is the big question. SUVs are much hated by environmentalists but in fact transport trucks use far more. You can drive from oostend to istanbul in nose to tail trucks six days a week. Our entire manufacturing and warehousing is optimised for "just in time delivery" and cheap transport of people. At a couple of hundred bucks a barrel the entire carry on will grind to a halt.
And I won't start on the impact that china is having with their 20 year buy contracts......on all commodities- bought any steel this year??