It's an axiom of politics that any question will get about half the people on each side. The 45% number actually says they screwed up the survey.

If you put "We need a national defense system to prevent little green men from Mars from polluting our green cheese during transit from the moon" you'd likely get about a 50/50 vote - UNLESS you've made a specific appeal to a "focus group" of voters who really care ('cause the preacher/mayor told them to in recent cases).

The reliability of this 50/50 split is sufficient that most campaigns assume that any interest bloc equal to 15% of those likely to vote will assure a victory. Since only about 60% (recent local votes in my area) of those eligible will be likely to vote, recruiting 4.5% of the population who would not have bothered voting without your crusade, and convincing them that it's "essential," is enough to carry a question. (Half of the 15% x 60& = 9% needed would vote for you anyway, so all you have to do is get them to go.)

Seen it done in several local elections recently.

John