The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #88315   Message #1655930
Posted By: Wolfgang
26-Jan-06 - 09:40 AM
Thread Name: BS: Palestinian Negotiation
Subject: RE: BS: Palestinian Negotiation
This result may indeed be good news on the long run.

The voters didn't care in particular about foreign politics in that vote. There are no real negatiations now between Fatah and Israel which could be in jeopardy by the result. They did care about the corrupt old leadership of Fatah which made sure that monies e.g. from the EU seldom reached those who needed it. Any threats that with the wrong result there would be no financial support is irrelevant for those who never did profit from the money. An incompetent and corrupt leadershiop has been voted out of office.

Hamas, with this result, will likely go the way of Fatah, from a terrorist group to a political party, and they have already started this way some time ago (at least two years ago). The terrorist fringe will go to Jihad, whereas the majority of Hamas will go the other way, though still accompanied by violent language.

Of course, both Israel and the new leadership of Palestine will negotiate, after some time even openly. They do so already at local level. Some village and town mayors from Hamas have talked to their Israeli neighbours about local problems. That will continue.

The good news for Israel is that with Hamas they have a group who can implement an armistice effectively. The Fatah leadership could not really offer that for they had never the control of the militants and Israel knew that. Hamas can control the militants, so Israel could rely upon them (in case of negotiations) more to be able to prevent further attacks than up to now.

Of course, things could go disastrously wrong, especially if some people would believe their own propaganda and act acordingly. Hamas could intensify the war of attrition if they were stupid. Israel could stop all negotiations with "terrorists" if they were stupid. And governments in the West could stop all support if they were stupid.
But with some notable exceptions, Hitler being one, when people are elected to power they forget the old propaganda and start realistic politics.

In my thinking, this result is a better reason for optimism than the other result would have been. Insisting upon Hamas taking part in the elections and bending some Israeli arms for that was one of the very few good moves of the present US government.

Wolfgang