As I said earlier, it's all a-- very expensive--sideshow. The real action (or inaction, now) is in the parliament. Will there--ever--be a stable "unity" government? And even more important, will the constitution be changed to more suit the Sunnis? That's the only way to defuse the insurgency. Promises of such amendments are the main reason Sunni leaders were willing to support the December elections. Now leaders of the other factions are balking at any substantive changes.

The Sunnis are not blind--they know that the constitution as it stands provides for a path to semi-autonomy for any region--including control over oil. If that happens, the Sunnis are the big losers. If Sunnis come to the conclusion that the changes they seek are out of the question, the insurgency will benefit---bigtime.