The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #87391   Message #1761798
Posted By: GUEST,TIA
16-Jun-06 - 06:18 PM
Thread Name: BS: Where's the Global Warming
Subject: RE: BS: Where's the Global Warming
Sorry Wolfgang, I have far more than "a little bit of knowledge" on the subject of Earth's history.

You are right, we have not yet wiped out 90% of species. Yet we have lost about 2/3 of species on the planet in just the last 150 years. Is the trend slowing? The extrapolation is quite easy.

For a specific example, we have lost 70% of Earth's living coral in the last decade. Again, is it slowing? What does extrapolation tell you?

Another - globally, 90% of large predatory fish have disappeared in the last hundred 50 years (not solely the result of global warming..overfishing is hugely involved, but if you're a large predatory fish, do you care?)

Another - again globally, 30% of amphibians are on the brink of extinction -- in some rainforests, 2/3 of frog species are already gone. Is this slowing? Is there a logical, sensical extrapolation to be made?

On a geologic time scale, ten years -- hell even 150 years -- is no time whatsoever. Not long ago, claiming that a mass extinction, or any big event, happened in anything less than a million years got you labelled a "catastrophist". Ten to 150 years certainly seems like a catastrophe to little old nonsensical me. And while I do now the difference between an upper limit and a mean (in fact I know the difference between mean, average, median, and mode as well!), it's a pedantic distinction at best in this case, and exactly the type of argument that climate change deniers (and creationists, and other anti-science people) use to discredit the opposition -- seize upon a small side issue where you sense weakness, and argue it as if it is the main point. I have never considered you to be one of these, and I hope you are not.

Time will certainly tell whether I am "outrageously wrong". If I am I will be happy (and alive) and will apologize to you (and everyone) for being alarmist. If I'm right, we might neither (none?) of us be here for the "I told you so's".

And you are correct, lies do not help a case. In fact, lies are what are keeping us from doing the right thing now for our children and grandchildren (and perhaps all future progeny).