Let me see if understand aright the jist of this thing: if the auhorities act as if there is a threat, they are doing it for some ulterior motive; if the thing threatened doesn't happen, perhaps even because of such action, that just proves there wasn't a threat. On the other hand, if the authorities act not, and the threat becomes reality, then the authorities were derelict in their duty. Gee, that's a real win/win for them.