I have nothing mathematical, scholarly or even logical to offer, but the most accessable incident I can think of which keeps me believing is my daughter's first day in the school band.

She is a very reserved girl, not shy, but careful. Like her dad, she prefers to know exactly where she's going before she goes. The first band rehearsal that year for some reason was not in the hall but the library and when we walked in there were about thirty kids with instrument cases all over the place, some assembling their instruments, some setting up their music stands, some already seated and warming up, others apparently just walking or standing around talking, and parents, at least of most of the beginners all trying to find a spot not too much in someobody's way.

A riotous cacophony of sound and movement, I was intimidated by it and I knew that she would be too. But where was she? She'd found a bit of floor space for her trombone (which was at that time nearly as big as herself), had opened her case and was assembling it as natural as you like. She then took it to a chair and stood it on its bell on the chair, went back for her music and stand, set them up, sat down and waited calmly.

She had not looked for a lead from what others were doing, and neither did she wade in and bluff her way through. She simply fitted in, and watching her do it there was only one conclusion possible for me: She's done this before.

It is worth noting alsoo that after six months she was invited to join the Intermediate Band, and after another three months, the Regional Band. I won't bore you with the significance of these achievements except to say she still (Four years later) holds the record as the youngest ever member of the Regional Band.