The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #97018   Message #1904548
Posted By: JohnInKansas
09-Dec-06 - 11:14 AM
Thread Name: BS: What's This- London Tornado?
Subject: RE: BS: What's This- London Tornado?
Anyone citing the US "Tornado Alley" needs to be pretty careful about which Tornado Alley they have reference too. There are so many different views on how things should be classified that no two people seem to agree.

A quick look for "hard data" found a couple of "interesting" web sites, but they all were so popup/trash ridden and so badly constructed that I won't link to them. We have a number of "professionals" who chase tornados for scientific edification, and also a number who offer "schools for wannabes" to teach people how to get a look at one (more, or often less, safely?). The sites I won't link are generally by the "teachers" who show evidence perhaps of having been through a few too many twisters.

The UK appears to most resemble Florida in the US. They get lots of tornadoes, likely many more than the UK, but only occasionally have "significant" (F2) ones.

A "probably accurate" assessment of the US, for the southeast states where most tornado activity occurs, is:

Tornado Risk in the Southeast United States (PDF, 580 KB).

It's an "attachment" to a larger document that I didn't bother to look up, but appears to part of a "civil preparedness" document of some sort. The emphasis is sort of on "danger level" rather than raw likelihood of occurance. It does affirm substantial improvements in public safety due to better construction and better weather prediction/reporting.

Table 1. Top ten states for tornado casualties per year in the United States (1970-1999).

1. Texas 126
2. Mississippi 124
3. Alabama 122 8.
4. Ohio 85 9.
5. Oklahoma 66
6. Tennessee 60
7. Kentucky 59
8. Georgia 56
9. Arkansas 55
10. Indiana 52

Dangitall, Kansas didn't even make the list.

Table 2. Top fifteen states for tornado casualties per square mile (1970-1999).

1. Connecticut; 2. Mississippi. 3. Alabama; 4. Ohio; 5. Kentucky; 6. Indiana; 7. Tennessee; 8. South Carolina; 9. Delaware; 10. Arkansas; 11. Louisiana; 12. Georgia; 13. Oklahoma; 14. North Carolina; 15. Rhode Island

Missed there too.

"One cause for such high tornado casualties in the southern states is the nature of building construction. According to Brooks and Doswell (2001) the current death rate for mobile home residents is nearly equal to what the overall national rate was prior to 1925, and more importantly, is about 20 times the rate of residents in permanently built homes."

Table 3. Percentage of mobile homes compared to total housing (1990 Census Report).

1. New Mexico/South Carolina 17.8%
3. Wyoming 17.6%
4. Arizona 16.5%
5. West Virginia 16.4%
6. Montana 16.2%
7. North Carolina 16.1%
8. Mississippi 14.8%
9. Idaho/Nevada 14.6%
11. Alabama 14.3%
12. Arkansas 14.1%
13. Florida 13.4%
14. Kentucky 13.2%
15. Delaware/Louisiana 12.7%

So all them redneck trailer trash stories may have somethin' to 'em(?).

Table 6. Tornado casualties normalized for population density.

1. Mississippi; 2. Texas; 3. Alabama; 4. Oklahoma; 5. Arkansas; 6. Kansas; 7. Nebraska; 8. Kentucky; 9. Tennessee; 10. Georgia; 11. Iowa; 12. Louisiana; 13. Wyoming; 14. Missouri; 15. South Dakota; 16. North Dakota; 17. Indiana; 18. South Carolina; 19. Ohio; 20. Minnesota.

Table 7. Average number of tornadoes of intensity F2 or greater per year.

1. Texas 27; 2. Oklahoma 14; 3. Mississippi 12; 4. Iowa 11; 5. Alabama 9.4; 6. Kansas 9.3; 7. Arkansas 8.5; 8. Louisiana 8.4; 9. Illinois 8.1; 10. Indiana/Nebraska 7.6.

Well, Kansas made No. 6 on the last two.

John