Australia will win this test, and if not this one, certainly the series in the end. It has little to do with the relative abilities of the two sides and much more to do with the will to win.

Australia currently do not hold the ashes. The believe it is their god-given right to hold the ashes and will do everything in their power to get them back. England currently hold the ashes, but do not really want to hang on to them enough, so they will lose the series and with it the ashes. Also look at England's record since that successful ashes series. Dire.

Somebody once said that Australia's national sport is winning! That being the case, there is nothing they hate more than losing. Losing the ashes in England last series must have hurt real bad.