petr is absolutely right. Oil prices would "go up" is putting it modestly. And an attack on Iran is the only surefire way to totally destroy the Iranian opposition to the present regime.

I believe that even clueless Bush knows this. He's putting all his eggs in Maliki's basket. The US will not invade Iran. Whether Israel will attack is anybody's guess.

One of the ironies of the Iraq situation is that Bush's new best friend in Iraq is the head of SCIRI--as fundamentalist a Moslem group as they come. But--a counterweight to Sadr. Therefore, the hope is that therefore Maliki will not be as beholden to Sadr as he is now--and can crack down on Sadr's militias--or countenance the US doing so. In theory.