It's far too early to make predictions. If forced to, I 'd have to say that the #1 question now regarding the 2008 election is the Iraq war. If, as is likely, the "surge" is not the panacea it's pictured--and in a year, virtually nothing has changed for the better in Iraq-- McCain is in deep trouble--since he has pushed for the "surge". At that point, the US will have to withdraw from Iraq--since the public will demand it. And McCain will have to explain his position to the general electorate--which will not buy it. If we are still in Iraq in anything close to the numbers we now have--in 2008---no Republican who supported the Iraq war will have a chance.


McCain is by far the strongest candidate--of the entire field--Republicans and Democrats. Except for the Iraq war--(the elephant in the room)--and his own health. The other 2 Republicans usually mentioned--Giuliani and Romney--don't come close in appeal to the broad electorate.

But if our involvement in Iraq has not changed by 2008--and the Iraqis themselves are no better off--McCain can kiss his chances goodbye.

So any Democrat would have an excellent chance--except Hillary--who has a huge amount of baggage. Better choice--John Edwards, for instance.

I would hope Obama would have a good chance--but look what happened to Harold Ford. A lot of people will lie to pollsters--and stay racist.

But a lot can still happen.