Defeat is interrupted by reality

...Security in three more Iraqi provinces is being turned over to Iraqis, with another batch due in spring. Despite the surge and military predictions, American casualties are actually down from the wretched rate of late 2006. There's been no Shiite onslaught as American and Iraqi troops have moved into Sadr City. U.S. commanders think Shiite troublemaker in chief Muqtada al-Sadr is hiding in Iran. Iraqi troops have trouble learning police procedure, say U.S. trainers, but observers say the checkpoints are far tighter, more professional, than in previous cleanups. The crack-down, at least in Baghdad, seems to be functioning, and as more coalition forces arrive, they're heading for the nearby towns where car-bomb factories have fled...
...It is notable, however, that Lt. Gen. David Petraeus' new idea - take a neighborhood, then stay to guard it - differs critically from the previous whack-a-mole method. This may be making an impression in the province to which jihadists have fled, Diyala. Tribal leaders there are organizing to fight al-Qaida, reported an Iraqi newspaper last week, sick of the violence the insurgents have brought. If this is so, it mirrors a push-back in Anbar, long the insurgents' base.

That is, people with a lot riding on the outcome may be betting now on the good guys winning, especially as al-Qaida suffers its own rifts over strategy. It's our side that's advancing. The side blowing up shoppers in vegetable markets is being pushed, at least for now.

"For now" is turning into some serious history. Iraqis are still managing to govern themselves, under a constitution they wrote and leaders they elected. This defies those who say they're incapable of self-government. Their army and police are still drawing recruits, even in Anbar. They've managed to start purging their corrupt Interior Ministry. Iraqis are feeding more tips to their cops. Refugees are moving back. As one Iraqi journalist noted, you're even seeing liquor stores reopening in Baghdad, which wouldn't be the case if insurgents were still able to make that a fatal offense...