"Sadr's Mehdi Army might be breaking up, those under Al-Sistani's influence however are not."

I think this statement is over-simplified. Another error in thinking. Al-Sistani is highly respected religious leader. He does not control a military faction. He is like the pope to Shias.

Part of al-Sadr's army and in fact al-Sadr himself have been reported to have crossed into Iran. I think its wishful thinking to assume that this indicates a permanent split in the Mahdi army.

Al-Sistani and al-Sadr control different realms. They are not necessarily opposed to each other. It is prudent for al-Sadr to lie low at this time. This has been at the request of Maliki. Maliki wants U.S. support ($$$ for reconstruction) and the troops go with the 'surge' package. If anything, the more militant of the Mahdi army are getting out of harms way so that the U.S. can go after their enemy, the militant Sunnis and al-qaeda.

In a year or so the U.S. will be gone, it will be a different situation and al-Sadr and the Mahdi army may or may not be needed in Iraq. They will re-enter the scene to keep the Sunnis (including Allawi)in line if it is necessary. At present, it is prudent to allow the U.S. to do the dirty work. If you think that is some kind of victory for the U.S. and Britain, think again.

I think its amazing how the Shia have manipulated the U.S. into ridding Iraq of Saddam and laying the ground work for a theocracy in Iraq. I hope that Iraq can maintain a more secular form of government but I can't help but admire the strategic thinking of the Iranians.

In fact, the best scenario I can think of is that Arab Sunnis and Arab Shiites will be pushed out of both Iraq and Iran eventually. It would be a great day to see the liberation of Persians and Kurds.

I doubt if that will happen in my lifetime, but I can dream.