I agree entirely with all that, Don. ;-)

As to the provocations FDR employed against Japan in '41, I believe there were basically 2 really serious ones.

1. He cut off their supplies of American scrap metal...quite serious, because they needed that to build their warships and other equipment.

2. He cut off their overseas oil sources! This was the decisive move, and it absolutely guaranteed that the Japanese would go to war against Britain, America, and Holland (Free Dutch forces)...their objective, to secure the huge oilfields in the Dutch East Indies. Without that oil their military machine would grind to a halt in about one year, and it was inconceivable that they would allow this to happen when they had already committed the resources of the nation to a major war in China. There was no going back for the Japanese at that point, because it is not in their national character to just give up, surrender, and go home. They would fight. No doubt about it.

The only questions were, how soon would they fight? And how would they go about launching their initial attacks? And how effective would those attacks be?

I think that the USA badly underestimated the abilities of the Japanese Navy and its aircraft...so the early going was very, very tough indeed until the Japanese ran out of luck at Midway. After that it was still tough going, but the end result was inevitable. The Brits also badly underestimated their Japanese foes, and took a pounding from them. The Japanese had the world's finest navy in 1941, its finest aircraft carrier squadrons, its best torpedoes, its best naval fighter plane by far, its most rigorously trained personnel...and a cadre of battle-hardened veterans from the war in China. They were utterly deadly in 1941-42, and the American Navy had to play catchup. Assisted by breaking the Japanese code, they were able to ambush Yamamoto's carriers at Midway and score an incredible victory. After that they ground the Japanese down island by island.

By early 1943 the US Navy had become the best in the world, eclipsing the forces of Japan, and its aircraft carrier forces had become unrivalled, and still are to this day.

Admiral Yamamoto, who had gone to University in the USA, had told the Japanese Army government that if he was ordered to use the Navy to fight the USA he could run wild for 6 months to a year...after that he could guarantee nothing. It turned out to be about 6 months. His gloomy assessment was dramatically confirmed at Midway. The man was given a miserable job to do by people far less wise and prescient than himself.