Don't underestimate McCain. He's an authentic American hero. If, God forbid, Hillary is the nominee, he can bring up the festering sore of Vietnam without even trying--just by his own history. With Hillary trying to deal with both the 60's and the 90's--each with huge numbers of people still bitter--what do you think the Swift Boating was about?--the Democrats will have big problems--again.

But it will all likely hinge on Iraq--as I predicted over year ago. There is now a serious movement to replace Maliki. If that happens, the US public will give up on Iraq--there'll be no chance of "national reconciliation"--and all the Republicans, especially McCain, will be sunk. But it's not clear if that will happen.

The other possibility is a recession. That almost always results in throwing out the president's party.

Obviously a recession is nothing anybody would wish for.





Back to Obama:

Sometimes it seems that Azizi, Peace, Amos, Bobert, mg, a -very-- few others, and I are the only ones who are not dyed-in-the-wool cynics. Ironic--I used to think of myself as a classic hard-bitten cynic. But compared to quite a few Mudcatters, I'm Roy Rogers--Happy Trails and all.

But actually, I think it's just attitude--we are willing to believe that the US, led by Obama, can improve. While many Mudcatters seem to feel the case is hopeless. Our attitude (hope and belief) is more typical of younger folks--we're not teenagers, right?--but just to feel that hope makes you feel younger, and more positive about life in general--rather than picking sourly at any good news in search of flaws, as is the wont of many here.

I've somehow fallen into the role of optimist. Not type-casting, I assure you. As an enthusiastic amateur historian, I know how hopes can be dashed. Some here seem to endorse Paul Verlaine's prescription: "Prends l'eloquence et tords-lui son cou"--"Take eloquence and wring its neck".

But I also know that perhaps the greatest power of the presidency is the power to persuade--(see Neustadt) It's been so at least since TR's "bully pulpit". And what better goal can there be but the end of bitter partisanship so we can actually get the US moving in the right direction? Obviously the power to persuade can be used for good (Obama's goal) or ill--Bush's manipulation of the US public to earn himself a place in Hell next to the Austrian corporal.

After Bush's abuse of the presidency and his betrayed promise--"uniter not a divider"--it's such an incredible relief to have somebody come on the scene who wants to use the position for good--and is truly more than willing to have a "big tent"--turning his back on the narrow adversarial culture which has ruled for so long.