My point wasn't that they might vote differently this time. I was speculating that there would be a fair number of people who actually voted for him, but who would now believe they voted against him. The corollary to that being that with a successful President the reverse would apply.

A different meaning of "changed their mind".

That's how it works with English voters anyway, when polls have been carried out on that kind of thing. And it happens with polls on the morrow of elections - some people always seem to be inclined to say they backed the winner even when they didn't.

As for Bush - back in 2000, remember, the rival Republican candidate was McCain...