The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #109201   Message #2280787
Posted By: GUEST,Guest
05-Mar-08 - 09:18 PM
Thread Name: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Subject: RE: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
I'm not convinced either Clinton or Obama will push this to the point of a brokered convention, actually. Neither of them would gain from that scenario, so I think you will see a deal struck coming out of PA.

Superdelegates can switch their endorsements at any time, and we've already seen that happen, mostly w/previously pledged Clinton delegates.

But if Clinton surges between now and April 22nd, and cleans up in PA, you will see the superdelegates swinging back her way. The superdelegates nearly always follow the voters. Which is why I can't see Obama pulling it off anymore, unless he can win PA. He has a lot of time, but man what a mountain he has to climb to beat Clinton decisively in PA.

I think the Dems see too much riding on this election to let this go to the convention. Whomever seems to have the best chance of winning around May, is likely who the nominee will be. Once the primary season wraps, there will be tremendous pressure on the perceived loser to bow out.

Also, if Clinton is the nom, I just don't see what she would gain by putting him on as a VP. Sure, he is carrying the southern states with the black vote, but Clinton needs a whole lot more than the black vote in South to win.

Edwards makes a lot more sense to me than Richardson, because he has already withstood the rigors and vetting of one campaign, and can *probably* put Florida in play. Clinton doesn't need someone from any of the big states she is winning, because she will definitely carry Illinois, almost certainly Michigan, California, etc. Since she is carrying the Latino vote, she doesn't seem to need Richardson that much. She really needs someone to help her carry the deep south, I think. If Edwards isn't willing, start looking to possibly an African American male from the House, a mayor or a governor.