The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #109201   Message #2280868
Posted By: Janie
06-Mar-08 - 12:03 AM
Thread Name: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Subject: RE: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Edwards had little political capital in North Carolina before he withdrew. He has even less now. I doubt you will see him brokering anything here.

North Carolina is still a crapshoot with respect to the primary. If I had to predict right now, I would guess Obama will win the primary, but I wouldn't lay down any money to back up that guess.

Regardless of the ultimate Democratic nominee, I wouldn't begin to predict whether North Carolina will go for McCain or the Democrat in the general election. Ditto for the rest of the States in the southeast. However much it may disturbing to others for me to say so, race will be an issue, but how that plays out is very unclear at this moment in time.   

Obama would garner African-American votes in the south, but will also lose swing votes and the votes of the many racist and conservative Democrats to McCain. Clinton would win more independent votes than Obama, and would split the conservative and the racist Democratic votes with McCain. Clinton may not be able to garner the heavy African-American Democratic turn-out necessary for a Democrat to carry the southeast States in the general election. An Obama candidacy will result in a larger African-American turnout at the general election, but will also lead to a larger reactionary vote for McCain among White neo-concervative Democrats, and swing voters.

Like I said, the southeast is a crapshoot.