The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #109201   Message #2281705
Posted By: McGrath of Harlow
06-Mar-08 - 07:56 PM
Thread Name: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Subject: RE: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
For electoral numerology wonks, here is an interesting piece from Newsweek - Hillary's Math Problem

The writer has done his sums on the remaining primaries, and concludes that even if Clinton does extremely well in all of them, Obama will still have more delegates. But not enough without the super delegates, who are going to be the decisive factor.

He concludes: "So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted super delegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any super delegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal."

The counter argument would of course be that victories in caucuses shouldn't count against victories in primaries, and that this would justify super delegates in adjusting things so that Clinton won. But that wouldn't stop it being suicidal for the Democrats if they were to do that.