The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #109371   Message #2286681
Posted By: Q (Frank Staplin)
12-Mar-08 - 03:38 PM
Thread Name: BS: Dems: Can they snatch defeat from ...
Subject: RE: BS: Dems: Can they snatch defeat from ...
Votes and delegates have to be in the right places for a candidate to be valid if there is no outright winner.
Votes in places like Mississippi are worrying- Clinton got 70% of the white vote (60% female), Obama got 90% of the black vote. The state has 26% African Americans.
Can the white male vote be salvaged when they voted in low numbers in the Demo primary (40%) or had voted in the Republican primary?

In how many states do women prefer Clinton over Obama, and how will this translate into votes in the election- if Obama is selected as the candidate, will these women vote for him or stay home?

The superdelegates will be faced with many such questions if neither candidate has sufficient votes to carry the Convention. They may stand aside to let a floor vote or two take place.
A floor fight can change many things. Delegates are not held to their pledge on later votes- the leaders of the delegations may argue for a vote change.

It would then be up to the superdelegates to direct the Convention delegates to the best candidate to oppose McCain. Voting so far in the primaries indicate that he will be strong in many states and not easy to derail.

I don't always agree with G-G, but his conclusion is hard to argue with.