Having beliefs and opinions is one thing.

Extrapolating consequences and predicting outcomes is a slightly different thing, involving the ability to see patterns in the present and correctly identify the as-yet-unexperienced consequences of those patterns and various additional impulses.

Good extrapolation brings about good understanding of probable consequences. For example, Bush probably saw plainly that if the Florida State Supreme court were to be honored by recounting the stae's vtes, he would lose.

Bad extrapolation based on bad data, false importances, wishful thinking, or a poor ability toperceive, brings about a misestimation of probable consequence: such as believing "we would be welcomed a sliberators" in Iraq for a few tens of billions of dollars and a few months of warfaring.

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