Megaquake set to strike within a decade
26 April 2008
Catherine Brahic in New Scientist


SOMETIME in the next 10 years we can expect an earthquake of a similar magnitude to the 2004 Sumatra quake that triggered the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami. So say Vladimir Kossobokov of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics in Moscow, Russia, and colleagues, who have developed an algorithm to predict where and when such megaquakes will occur.
The team claims a global pattern emerges in the years before earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or more. For example, the number of quakes caused by crustal movements between 300 and 700 kilometres below the surface rises, as does the incidence of those with a magnitude of 8.0 or more. Kossobokov points out that the four largest earthquakes of the 20th century happened within just 12 years, starting with the Kamchatka Peninsula quake in Russia in 1952, and culminating in the magnitude 9.2 quake in Prince William Sound, Alaska. ...