The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #101088   Message #2333434
Posted By: Amos
05-May-08 - 02:39 PM
Thread Name: BS: Popular Views on Obama
Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama
Public Policy Polling released its final poll today on the Democratic nomination race in North Carolina and it's got Barack Obama 10 points ahead of Hillary Rodham Clinton, 53%-43%.

The firm has been reliable in some primary contests this year but blew Pennsylvania bigtime last month. It had Obama winning by 3 percentage points (he lost by 9).

PPP is based in Raleigh and polls on a number of races in North Carolina. Its press release and full questionnaire on the presidential primary are here. And here is a blogpost in which communications director Tom Jensen explains how the firm arrived at its turnout projections, in particular by black voters.

As Mark noted earlier, several polls today show a tighter race in North Carolina. And as we note several times everyday, polls are snapshots. They don't forecast what will happen when voters go to the polls.

Update at 1:20 p.m. ET. A new national number:

Gallup just reported on its latest national tracking poll, which now shows Obama leading Clinton 50%-45% among Democratic voters. Yesterday, Obama was ahead 49%-45%. Given the poll's 3-percentage-point margin of error, Gallup is noting that the two are basically tied -- and have been for 12 days in a row. (Reminder: They're essentially tied because the margin of error applies to both numbers. So, Obama's support could be as low as 47% and Clinton's could be as high as 48%.)

(USAT)