The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #111210   Message #2339966
Posted By: Janie
14-May-08 - 01:03 AM
Thread Name: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
Subject: RE: BS: How is West Virginia doing in elect.?
The significance of West Virginia, is not the number of delegates at stake.   West Virginia is a blue collar State with a very small minority population. 2006 US Census estimates are that the population is 94.9% White. 3.3% of the population is African-American, which means all other minority populations are miniscule.

The pundits and the Clinton campaign think Clinton's strong showing there demonstrates that she is more electable, assuming the the importance of the the White, blue collar vote to the the success of the Democratic nominee.    27% of the population is under age 18, and just over 15% is over age 65. I'm guessing the average age of registered voters in WV is higher than the national average.

Given the atypical demographics of WV, a 30% showing for Obama ain't too bad.   My West Virginia family all voted for Clinton. If Obama wins the nomination, they will all vote for him in the general election. However, my family is somewhat atypical for West Virginia in this day and age, and also tend to be straight party Democrats - an increasingly rare breed anywhere. Given the State demographics, the fact that nationally, the Democratic party is more pro environment than are the Republicians, (McCain;s recent noises re: global warming not withstanding), and the reality that any kind of economic survival for in the foreseeable future for the State depends on free rein to continue to rape the environment, West Virginia's electoral votes will go to McCain if Obama wins the nomination.

It is the electoral college that determines the election (don't we all know that!) When the demographics are examined state by state, it is clear we are in for a real horse race come November.