Q--

You haven't learned any more as a Guest, it seems. McCain could easily take Obama down? We'll see.

Doesn't look good for McCain at this point.

1) Polls already about even--and that's before Obama's bounce when Hillary finally bows out.

2) The US--including Republicans---is thoroughly sick of Bush. Obama's theme will be: Do you want a Bush 3rd term? And it's a winning theme.

3) The US mood is more sour than it's been in a long time. "Throw the bums out" always starts with the president's party.

4) There are huge numbers of new Democrats,   including young people and black people--who joined because of Obama. Added to this are large numbers of independents--including, for sure, anybody who wants to end the Iraq war, and that includes some Republicans.

As I recall, you subscribe to the rather dubious notion that "we have to fight al-Qaeda there or they will follow us home", totally disregarding the fact that Iraqi Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds hate al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda will have its hands full surviving in Iraq--not exactly in posture to take over Iraq, despite your delusions.

5) Many women now say they want Hillary or nobody. But many more realize that they must keep McCain from having a chance to name a Supreme Court justice if they want to preserve Roe v Wade. So they must vote for the Democratic nominee--whoever that person is.   And it will be Obama. The first group will be persuading the second group.

6) Then there's the Hispanic vote. Obama will be coming out strongly for a path to ciizenship for all illegal immigrants. As I've noted elsewhere, this puts McCain in a box.

Either he also supports this idea--and loses the Tancredo true believers--or he opposes it--and his portion of the Hispanic vote plunges from the 40% GWB got in 2004--which more than made the difference in a very close election.

It looks as if McCain will be left with the racists and the under-educated. That's not a majority.

If I didn't know better, I'd think your prediction is based on frustrated schadenfreude--since so far all your predictions have come to nothing, to put it mildly.