Bobert, Using the PALESTINIAN sources...



The number of Arabs residing in Palestine as citizens in 1948 and consequently the number of refugees, is a matter of controversy.
McCarthy (article in Encyclopedia of the Palestinians, Philip Mattar Ed. posted at the Palestine Remembered Web site ) states the following:
Of the 1,358,000 Palestinian Arab citizens of Palestine in 1948, approximately 873;600 resided within what would become the Israeli borders, 485,000 without. The Israelis recorded 156,000 non-Jews in 1948, a number that included perhaps 1,000 non-Arabs, leaving 155,000 Palestinians in Israel. This means that 718,000 Palestinians either were refugees or died during the war. Note that this number depends on the somewhat imprecise estimation of the numbers who lived on both sides of the border before the war, and so should be taken as a mean estimate. However, statistically it cannot be wrong by more than 5 to 10 percent (for other analyses, see Khalidi, 1992; Bachi, 1977).
The above estimates which according to McCarthy "cannot be wrong by more than 5 to 10 percent" probably overestimate the population within the area of Israel by about 20% as we shall see. The 156,000 "non-Jews" recorded by the Israelis included about 15,000 Druze. McCarthy counts these apparently in all statistics though he writes:
" all non-citizens, as well as non-Druze listed along with the Druze under the category "Other" in the British data, should be excluded."
If he did not count the Druze, then how else could he report 860,000 Arabs in 1931, when the census reported less than 849,000? The extra 10,000 Druze seem to make up the discrepancy.
The above numbers are based on the assumption of McCarthy that the Mandate figures for mortality and fertility were wrong. So he has corrected by "fudge factors." If indeed the mandate numbers for fertility and mortality were wrong, the numbers found in the Census of 1931 would have been very different from the estimates given in previous years. They were not.
A confusion has arisen about the number of refugees originally reported by the UN. Some Zionists cite a figure as low as 472,000. That number is an interim estimate, not a final figure. It comes from a progress report by UN Mediator Ralph Bunche, published Oct. 18, 1948.
The number 726,000 comes from an economic survey final report published Dec. 28, 1949, by the UN Conciliation Commission. The document is available in PDF format. That is the figure McCarthy used. But In its report A/1367/Rev.1, dated Oct. 23, 1950, the U.N. Conciliation Commission revised the 726,000 estimate down to 711,000. It stated:
15. The estimate of the statistical expert, which the Committee believes to be as accurate as circumstances permit, indicates that the refugees from Israel-controlled territory amount to approximately 711,000. The fact that there is a higher number of relief recipients appears to be due among other things to duplication of ration cards, addition of persons who have been displaced from areas other than Israel-held areas and of persons who, although not displaced, are destitute.
In fact, there was probably no way to determine precisely how many refugees there were for the reasons cited above, and because of addition of non-Palestinian Arabs who where also destitute and "displaced from areas other than Israel held areas" (or not displaced at all) or persons who "although not displaced, are destitute." There is always a large supply of persons who are destitute in this part of the world, but that is not related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.




PLEASE NOTE ( emphasis, not shouting:)
Of the 1,358,000 Palestinian Arab citizens of Palestine in 1948, approximately 873;600 resided within what would become the Israeli borders, 485,000 without. The Israelis recorded 156,000 non-Jews in 1948, a number that included perhaps 1,000 non-Arabs, leaving 155,000 Palestinians in Israel. This means that 718,000 Palestinians either were refugees or died during the war. Note that this number depends on the somewhat imprecise estimation of the numbers who lived on both sides of the border before the war, and so should be taken as a mean estimate.

So your WAG of 4 million is a lot like your other statistics- without merit. THREE times as many as the ENTIRE non-Jewish population??? Or are you saying the other ARAB nations sent a few more along, just to keep them company?