McCain is having the problem I mentioned earlier--he has to appeal beyond his base but when he does try, the base threatens to desert--or at least stay home.

1) Quite a few figures on the "Religious Right" are not happy with him. Even if they eventually do vote for him, at a minimum he will not have the army of foot soldiers they provided to Bush in 2004. Whereas Obama will still have his legions.

2) WSJ has pilloried him several times recently--including once for embracing the "cap and trade" approach to emissions and then today for voting against opening ANWR to drilling.

3) Tancredo and his followers are not huge fans either.